Sunday, March 16, 2014

Looks Like UConn's in Line for a No. 5 Seed

The thing about conference tournaments is that, no matter how disappointed or elated a team is with its performance, it all gets quickly forgotten on Selection Sunday. And that, of course, is today.

So, after two real good wins over Memphis and Cincinnati, followed by yet another loss to Louisville in the championship game, UConn now turns its attention on its return (after a one-year, NCAA-imposed hiatus) to the NCAA tournament.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Huskies as the No. 5 seed in the South Region, playing Stephen F. Austin in its opener in Spokane, Wash. Jerry Palm of CBSsports.com has the Huskies as the No. 5 seed in the West Region and facing either Tennessee or BYU in their opening game in Orlando, Fla.

At this point, of course, it's all speculation. We'll find out for sure sometime a little after 6 p.m. on Sunday.

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Wednesday, March 13, 2013

'Bracketologists' Differ on Where UConn Would Be if Tourney-Eligible

It’s fun -- yet really impossible -- to speculate where UConn would be right now if it was postseason-eligible. After all, if the Huskies had been postseason-eligible this season, would Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith still be on the team?

Still, it’s an intriguing question: based on what the Huskies did this year, would they be solidly in the NCAA tournament field at this point, or on the bubble, with work to do this week at the Big East tournament (if, of course, they were allowed to play in that tourney).

We asked a couple of noted “bracketologists” – ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Yahoo Sports’ Brad Evans – and their opinions were surprisingly varied. Lunardi has the Huskies as a No. 10 or 11 seed, probably needing a win this week in New York to assure themselves of a Big Dance ticket, while Evans has UConn as a 6 or 7 seed – with the potential to climb as high as a 5 or fall as low as 8.

Here’s what they had to say:

LUNARDI:

“For the record, you’re the first person that’s asked me today, but I’ve been asked every day, all season about UConn. I’ve been evaluating them as if they were eligible, and right now they’d be around the cut line, between a 10 and an 11. Kind of where Villanova and Cincinnati are. I’ve got Villanova at 40, Cincinnati at 41. They’d be in the field. Not by a lot, but by enough to feel comfortable.”

EVANS:

“Right now … I’d have them on a 6 or 7 seed line, probably a back-end 6 seed. Their record isn’t gaudy by any stretch, but they’ve got RPI wins, quality wins akin to a Wisconsin or an Illinois. They’ve got 10 losses, but enough accrued quality victories worthy of a 6 seed, or at worst a 7 seed.

“Now, if they lost the opening game of the Big East tournament, they may slide to an 8 seed. But that’s rock-bottom for them. Conversely, if they won three in a row or took the Big East tournament title, they have a ceiling of a 5 seed.”

So why the discrepancy between Lunardi and Evans?

“I usually weigh strength of schedule (they’re top 30), quality wins, but (if you) look at is other metrics – UConn’s KenPom ranking is 53, they’re Sagarin is around 55," said Evans. "Every committee’s different. If you look at secondary metrics and cling to those, they could be a 10 seed. But if you use traditional measurements like RPI, quality wins, strength of schedule, which I’m endeared to, they’d be higher.”

Of course, if Alex Oriakhi or Roscoe Smith (or Andre Drummond) were here … and if they were eligible for the Big East tourney … etc., etc.

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Thursday, March 4, 2010

Flunking the Eye Test ... For Now

So Joe Lombardi ... er, Lunardi has UConn in the NCAA tournament right now. One of his last four in, right along with Notre Dame. Interesting.

Sorry Joe, but I just don't see it. Not now. Not at 17-13, 7-10 in the Big East. Not after whatever that was Wednesday night against the Irish.

Now, granted, I didn't major in Bracketology while at URI. More like Astronomy -- as in, I took up a lot of space in class. Joey Brackets apparently remains impressed with the Huskies' RPI (49) and strength of schedule (2), and that's all well and good. But Lunardi seems to be too much of a prisoner of the numbers, and not taking into account the human element. He's like one of those sabermetricians in baseball, who think a guy should get into the Hall of Fame because he's got a great career OBP, without taking into account if the guy was a dominant player over his career.

Please. Hate to trot out the term "eye test," but did your eyes see Wednesday night's ugliness?

UConn has a great win at Villanova, a very good win over West Virginia and a pretty good win over faltering Texas.

But the Huskies are hardly surging into the postseason (4-6 in last 10, two straight losses). They're 3-9 away from home (2-7 on the road, 1-2 neutral). They're in 12th place in the Big East, and they've lost to 11th-place Cincinnati twice.

They've lost to Providence and Michigan, both on the road. There aren't a whole lot of bad road losses, in my book -- especially in the Big East. Winning on the road in this conference isn't easy, no matter who you play. Except DePaul. And Providence.

It's all well and good that the Huskies have played a tough schedule, but you've got to do more than just play good teams. Gotta win some. They did beat Villanova and West Virginia, and they deserve all the credit in the world for it. But those big wins are somewhat cancelled out by the Providence/Michigan/Cincy losses. Almost beating Kentucky, Syracuse, Georgetown and Duke doesn't mean a whole lot.

The tournament selection committee may not take all of the above factors into consideration, but the bottom line is, it's hard to agree with Lunardi right now. And a win Saturday at South Florida won't change that, either.

The Huskies really need to do A LOT of damage in the Big East tourney next week. Win at USF and I'd say UConn needs to at least get to Saturday nignt's championship game to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. Getting to Friday's semifinals might do the trick. And here's the kicker: THEY CAN DO IT!

Nothing you saw Wednesday night would convince you that the Huskies can make a conference tourney run. Nothing they've done in the past four seasons (in which they've been one-and-done in New York all four times, stunningly) would make you believe that, either. But it's hardly impossible.

As it stands right now, UConn would play Rutgers in their opening game. They've already handled the Scarlet Knights on the road this year, and it's hard to believe they couldn't do it again. Next would be Marquette. Wouldn't bet the house on that one, but not impossible, by any stretch.

Then would come Pitt. Again, a tough challenge. But remember this: in recent years, teams that have already locked up an NCAA bid don't always play as well in the Big East tourney. Last year, three of the Big East's top four seeds (including UConn) lost their conference tourney openers. UConn and Villanova, of course, wound up going to the Final Four.

Not saying that hard-nosed Pitt, under the terrific tutelage of Jamie Dixon, would fall into that same trap. But again, it's possible.

And while we're at it, if UConn somehow gets to the semifinals and finals, it's already proven it can beat Villanova, West Virginia and (almost) Syracuse.

So, there you have it. Can't agree that UConn is in the Big Dance right now, but I'm predicting a decent run at Madison Square Garden. Get to the finals, and they're in.

Provided, of course, they beat USF on Saturday ...

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