Tuesday, October 21, 2014

My AP preseason Top 25 ballot, All-America team

Happy to be an Associated Press Top 25 voter again this season. Our preseason Top 25 and five-man All-American team is due by Friday. The first AP Top 25 will be released on Oct. 31, with the All-America team moving on Nov. 3.

Here's what I'll be submitting:

1.       Wisconsin
2.       Kentucky
3.       Arizona
4.       Duke
5.       Kansas
6.       North Carolina
7.       Louisville
8.       Texas
9.       Wichita State
10.   Iowa State
11.   Villanova
12.   UConn
13.   Florida
14.   Gonzaga
15.   Virginia
16.   SMU
17.   San Diego State
18.   Michigan State
19.   Virginia Commonwealth
20.   Michigan
21.   Harvard
22.   Ohio State
23.   Stanford
24.   Syracuse
25.  Memphis

All-America:
Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
Sam Dekker, Wisconsin
Georges Niang, Iowa State
Marcus Paige, North Carolina
Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State

I’ve never particularly liked the Wisconsin men’s basketball team. Just hasn’t been very aesthetically pleasing over the years, a bit too … boring, we’ll say. Yeah, boring.

But the Badgers won me over last season, led by big Frank Kaminsky and dynamic Sam Dekker (who’s anything but boring). Now, pretty much everyone’s back from last year’s Final Four team that fell a few points short of a date with UConn in the national championship game. That’s why I’m picking them as my preseason No. 1.

It seems most people are going with Kentucky, the team that beat the Badgers in last year’s Final Four, after all. The Wildcats have a record nine McDonald’s All-Americans on their roster, including key players from last year’s runners-up like the Harrison twins (Aaron and Andrew) as well as Willie Cauley-Stein (whose injury for the national championship game undoubtedly helped UConn).

But Kentucky also loses key players like Julius Randle and James Young. They’ve got great freshmen coming in, led by Karl Towns, but so often we’ve seen teams with great newcomers have trouble jelling and, ultimately, disappointing. 

I'll side with teams like Wisconsin -- veteran, experienced teams who truly love being in college and value their entire collegiate experience -- over teams stacked with talent but, too often, have too many guys with one eye on the next level and perhaps aren't buying into the whole team concept.

Sure, every now and then there’s a team like 2012 Kentucky, which rolled to a national title behind freshmen and sophomores, led by Anthony Davis. But look no further than 2014 Kentucky. Remember, some pundits were predicting an undefeated season for a team led largely by freshmen? The Wildcats wound up disappointing through much of the season and were a No. 8 seed for the NCAA tournament. Kentucky started to come together at just the right time, of course (John Calipari deserves a lot of credit there) and wound up in the national title game … where it fell to UConn.

Ah yes, UConn. What to do with the Huskies? It’s funny to look at the preseason coaches’ poll and see four of the teams UConn beat in last year’s NCAA tournament (Kentucky, Florida, Villanova and Iowa State) all ranked ahead of the Huskies. But it’s somewhat understandable.

The graduation of Shabazz Napier is huge. Yes, Ryan Boatright is a terrific player who really matured last season – particularly in the postseason – as a true point guard, a leader and a defensive whiz. Yes, Amida Brimah should be one of the best shot-blockers in the nation. Yes, Rodney Purvis, Daniel Hamilton and Sam Cassell, Jr. are outstanding additions. Yes, Terrence Samuel boasts championship pedigree, and if Omar Calhoun can turn things around … watch out!


But it’s hard to quantify just how much Shabazz meant to this program that past couple of seasons. There were so many games in which his late heroics saved the Huskies from defeat. Never mind the obvious ones like Florida and Indiana last season; don’t forget South Florida on the road, where Napier delivered an inspirational halftime speech (after the Huskies had played their worst half of the season and trailed by six), then scored 11 of UConn’s final 14 points in a 61-56 win. Or how about against Quinnipiac in the 2012 Paradise Jam, when he scored 23 of his 29 points in the game’s final 3 ½ minutes of regulation and two overtimes? Those are just two of too many other examples to list.

I like UConn this season. There’s a lot of talent, but I see it taking a while for it all to jell together. It’s going to take a couple of months for guys like Hamilton, Purvis and Cassell, Jr. to learn how to play together, share the ball and do what’s best for the team. I don’t worry about Boatright – I think he knows he’s got to prove to NBA scouts that he’s a distributor and that he can make his teammates better. He’ll do that. But there are a lot of shots to go around, and it’ll be interesting to see how everybody co-exists. It’ll also be interesting to see if UConn still has some long-distance threats now that Napier, DeAndre Daniels and Niels Giffey are gone. Early returns are that Cassell may just be that guy.

So, I like the Huskies more than some (for instance, Lindy’s magazine has them ranked No. 36. Even though I did the UConn and AAC season previews for this edition, I’ll take no blame for that low ranking. Wasn’t me). However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if SMU beats out UConn for the AAC championship. If Emmanuel Mudiay had stayed at SMU rather than zipped off to China, that might be a no-brainer. Even without Mudiay, however, the Mustangs return just about everyone from last year’s 27-10, NIT runners-up, including all-AAC picks Nic Moore and Markus Kennedy, former McDonald’s All-American Keith Frazier and talented Xavier transfer Justin Martin. And, let’s not forget, SMU beat UConn last season both times they met. This Larry Brown guy can coach a little bit.

In fact, I was prepared to rank SMU even higher and pick it to win the AAC until reports the other day that Kennedy may be sidelined for at least the early part of the season due to academic issues. If Kennedy misses part (or all) of the season, it’s a big blow to the Mustangs.

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Friday, March 28, 2014

Shabazz Napier has Already 'Shabazz-ed' a Georges Niang Team Once Before

A few off-the-beaten-path notes heading into Friday's UConn-Iowa State Sweet 16 game at Madison Square Garden:

As we documented in a story back in December, Shabazz Napier was already Shabazz-ing other opponents long before he enrolled at UConn. He was hitting clutch shots and having big games at Lawrence Academy and at Charlestown High prior to his Husky career.

In fact, in a game against Tilton School as a senior, Napier went for 36 points in an 88-85 overtime win on the road. One of Tilton's star players? Georges Niang.

Yes, we know Niang won't be playing for Iowa State tonight, but just found that interesting.

*** Kemba Walker had a lot of interesting things to say about this year's UConn team in this New York Post story the other day. One thing I'm not sure I'd heard before was the following:

Walker recalled how Jim Calhoun raged at Napier at halftime of the NCAA championship against Butler.

“We weren’t playing so great, and Coach Calhoun kind of got into Shabazz a little bit, and the way he came out in that second half and responded, it was a cool thing to watch. Coach Calhoun, during that time, he hadn’t really got into anyone the way he got into Shabazz that day, and it was kind of cool to see how Shabazz reacted. He didn’t get down, he got better. He sparked us in that second half, and that was why we were able to go on and win that championship game.”

I didn't get a chance to ask Shabazz about that yesterday, as he was too busy answering the same questions, over and over, from national and New York media about staying with the UConn program, playing at the Garden, etc., etc. But I did ask Tyler Olander if he recalled the halftime outburst by Calhoun at Shabazz, and here's what he had to say:

"I remember him laying into a couple of guys. I don't remember him specifically singling out anyone, but he said a couple of guys really need to step it up if we're going to win this game. I think Shabazz and Jeremy (Lamb) knew he was talking to them, they've got to step it up, take a little pressure off Kemba so he'd be able to create and they can get involved in the flow of the game."

"(Calhoun) was in there, throwing markers and all that stuff. We were like, 'Hey,' I thought we were doing decent, we're winning the game, doing alright. That's just Coach Calhoun. That wasn't enough. We had to dominate, we could do better."

*** Wouldn't it be amazing if, somehow, Omar Calhoun were to make some sort of big contribution for UConn on Friday, right here in his hometown of New York? Especially after this most disappointing sophomore season? Calhoun tells me his future is at UConn. We shall see.

*** No doubt, there will be no shortage of New York City bars where Husky fans can congregate for Friday's game. There's even a UConn pre-game pep rally from 5:30-7 p.m. at the Affinia Manhattan Ballroom on 371 7th Ave. (31st and 7th, just a block from the Garden).

There'll even be a Husky Hangout/Game Watch on Saturday at The Thirsty Fan on 254 W. 31st St., across from the Garden, for those who want to watch the UConn women's game against BYU.

And, against all odds, there's apparently an Iowa State bar in NYC, too:



Who knew?

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Monday, March 24, 2014

Tickets for UConn's Sweet 16 Game are Expensive -- And Going Fast

While Iowa State will be down one of its best players (Georges Niang) on Friday night, UConn may be joined by a very powerful sixth man.

According to Connor Gregoir from SeatGeek, fans from Connecticut (and the whole tri-state area) are snatching up tickets to this weekend's East Regional semifinals and finals in big numbers. And those tickets are expensive. VERY expensive:

Tickets to the East Regional at Madison Square Garden are the most expensive regional tickets we've ever recorded since we began monitoring the secondary market in 2009. The average ticket price for a full strip (including a ticket to both the Sweet 16/regional semifinal doubleheader on Friday and the Elite Eight/regional final on Sunday) is $570, topping the average cost of a full strip to the West Regional in Anaheim ($464) -- this year's second-most expensive regional -- by $106. 

Prior to this year's games at MSG, the most expensive regional we had recorded was the 2011 East Regional, which was also held in the NY/NJ area. A full strip to those games (Ohio State-Kentucky and UNC-Marquette in the semis followed by Kentucky-UNC in the final) at the Prudential Center in Newark went for an average of $480.

Based on early returns, it looks like the Huskies will benefit from a heavily UConn-friendly crowd this weekend. Since UConn defeated Villanova on Saturday, more than 40% of traffic to SeatGeek's event pages for the East Regional has come from Connecticut. New York and New Jersey have accounted for another 30% of ticket shoppers, with the remainder split up among several states.

Friday's doubleheader is the most expensive single-admission college basketball event MSG has ever hosted. Tickets for UVa-Michigan State and UConn-Iowa State are going for $355 each on average, coming in ahead of last year's Big East conference tournament semifinal doubleheader ($266 average ticket price), which featured the final Big East meeting between Syracuse and Georgetown as well as Notre Dame-Louisville.

To put Friday's games in a wider MSG context, ticket prices are on par with those for the Knicks-Heat game on the eve of this year's Super Bowl ($373 average ticket price) and the Rangers' Eastern Conference Semifinal games against the Bruins last season ($381 average ticket price).

The last time UConn advanced to the regional semifinals and final in 2011, a full strip for the games at the Honda Center in Anaheim went for an average of $436, but those high prices were driven mostly by the presence of local schools Arizona and San Diego State. Tickets for the semifinal session that year cost an average of $265, and seats for the UConn-Arizona regional final went for $234 apiece.

As it stands now, there are just under 3,000 full strips for the East Regional available on the resale market, and the cheapest strip is a $440 seat in Section 318. Sweet 16 tickets on Friday night start at $316, and tickets for the regional final on Sunday can be had starting at $172 apiece. All of the latest information on prices and availability can be found on SeatGeek's March Madness page: http://seatgeek.com/events/march-madness/


Of course, UConn and Shabazz were kind of destined all along to get back to the Garden, no?

*** Meanwhile, I'm not a gambler, but Jimmy Shapiro of Bovada loves to send over his site's odds on things. UConn is a 33-to-1 bet to win it all (lower than only Stanford and Dayton, same as San Diego State), while Iowa State is 16-to-1. The Huskies have the worst odd (9-to-2) of coming out of the East Region, and Shabazz Napier is a 40-to-1 bet to win Most Outstanding Player of the whole NCAA tournament:

2014 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship - Odds to Win

Florida #1 7/2
Michigan State #4 9/2
Louisville #4 5/1
Arizona #1 6/1
Virginia #1 10/1
Michigan #2 16/1
Wisconsin #2 16/1
Iowa State #3 18/1
UCLA #4 18/1
Kentucky #8 20/1
Baylor #6 20/1
Tennessee #11 28/1
San Diego State #4 33/1
Connecticut #7 33/1
Stanford #10 50/1
Dayton #11 100/1

2014 East Region - Odds to Win

Michigan State #4 3/2
Virginia #1 2/1
Iowa State #3 4/1
Connecticut #7 9/2

2014 NCAA Tournament MOP - Odds to Win
Scottie Wilbekin (Florida) 7/1
Russ Smith (Louisville) 9/1
Gary Harris (MSU) 10/1
Adreian Payne (MSU) 10/1
Nick Johnson (Arizona) 12/1
Casey Prather (Florida) 15/1
Patric Young (Florida) 15/1
Luke Hancock (Louisville) 18/1
Aaron Gordon (Arizona) 20/1
Montrezl Harrell (Louisville) 20/1
Nik Stauskas (Michigan) 22/1
Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia) 25/1
Joe Harris (Virginia) 25/1
T.J. McConnell (Arizona) 25/1
Jordan Adams (UCLA) 25/1
Ben Brust (Wisconsin) 33/1
Melvin Ejim (Iowa State) 33/1
DeAndre Kane (Iowa State) 33/1
Kyle Anderson (UCLA) 33/1
Julius Randle (UK) 33/1
Traevon Jackson (Wisconsin) 40/1
Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin) 40/1
Sam Dekker (Wisconsin) 40/1
Glenn Robinson III (Michigan) 40/1
Shabazz Napier (UCONN) 40/1
Aaron Harrison (UK) 40/1
Andrew Harrison (UK) 40/1
James Young (UK) 40/1
Jordan McRae (Tennessee) 40/1
Xavier Thames (San Diego State) 50/1
Cory Jefferson (Baylor) 50/1
Brady Heslip (Baylor) 50/1
Isaiah Austin (Baylor) 50/1
Jarnell Stokes (Tennessee) 50/1
Chasson Randle (Stanford) 66/1
Dwight Powell (Stanford) 100/1
Dyshawn Pierre (Dayton) 200/1
Jordan Sibert (Dayton) 200/1

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Sunday, March 23, 2014

A Look at Iowa State, UConn's Opponent in Sweet 16

Here's some info on Iowa State, which edged North Carolina on Sunday night to earn the right to play UConn in a Sweet 16 game on Friday night at Madison Square Garden:

Iowa State is led by Melvin Ejim, a 6-foot-6 senior forward who averaged 18.1 points per game, and DeAndre Kane, a senior guard who netted 16.9. The team suffered a huge loss in its Round-of-64 win over NC Central when 6-7, 240-pound sophomore Georges Niang broke a bone in his foot and was lost for the rest of the tourney. Niang averaged 16.7 points per game this season, and the Cyclones often ran their offense through him.

Ejim beat out Kansas’s Andrew Wiggins for Big 12 player of the year. He had 48 points and 16 rebounds in a win over TCU earlier this season. Anyone who can go for 48 and 16 in a game, no matter the opponent, is someone to be reckoned with.

History lesson (this will be brief): UConn and Iowa State have met just once in their respective histories, and it was recent. The Cyclones handed the Huskies a 77-64 loss in each teams’ NCAA tournament opening game on March 15, 2012. It proved to be Jim Calhoun’s final game as UConn’s head coach, as he retired six months later and handed over the reins to Kevin Ollie.

The Cyclones, led by soon-to-be NBA first-round draft pick Royce White, jumped out to as much as a 22-point first-half lead (keyed by a 16-0 run) and withstood UConn’s comeback bid to earn the win. The underachieving Huskies had two soon-to-be NBA draft lottery picks (Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond) as well as future second-round pick Alex Oriakhi on the team. But Drummond and Oriakhi each finished with two points and three rebounds. Drummond fouled out; Oriakhi would soon transfer to Missouri.
Shabazz Napier led the Huskies with 22 points in that one.

It's also worth noting that the game was played in Louisville's KFC Yum! Center, which has become a true House of Horrors for the Huskies in its brief history. UConn will be much happier playing before what's sure to be a rowdy, partisan crowd Friday night at the Garden.

Old pals: Kevin Ollie and ISU coach Fred Hoiberg are longtime friends, dating back to a recruiting trip to two took to the University of Arizona more than 20 years ago. They were also teammates with the Chicago Bulls for about half a season. And when Hoiberg was assistant general manager of the Minnesota Timberwolves, he brought in Ollie to come in and play backup point guard.

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