Sunday, October 11, 2009

UConn By Numbers

Don't know about you, but this is a baseball Sunday for me. Red Sox-Angels now, Yankees-Twins later, Phillies-Rockies even later. That beats the NFL any day, in my book -- especially this week, when there are so many bad games. But I'm probably in the minority on that one.

Anyway, had some free time and got to thinking what we can expect from this year's UConn team in terms of individual statistics. I've always loved projecting this kind of stuff, so much that I'm even breaking down their scoring, rebounding, etc. averages by the decimal point. Makes it more interesting than just saying "16 ppg, 8 rpg," and wouldn't it be wild if I actually nailed any of the numbers right on the money?

So, here's what I project from this year's group in terms of scoring, rebounding and assists, taking into account playing time and things like that (and obviously barring any injuries):

Jerome Dyson 17.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg
Stanley Robinson 13.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.2 apg
Kemba Walker 12.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 6.3 apg
Gavin Edwards 8.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.7 apg
Ater Majok 8.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, .8 apg
Alex Oriakhi 4.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, .3 apg
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel 4.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.5 apg
Darius Smith 2.1 ppg, .5 rpg, 2.1 apg
Donnell Beverly 2.0 ppg, .8 rpg, 2.0 apg
Charles Okwandu 1.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .2 apg
Jamaal Trice 1.4 ppg, .7 rpg, .8 apg
Jonathan Mandeldove .5 ppg, 1.2 rpg, .1 apg

I don't think there's any question that Dyson's the leading scorer. I see him with some big scoring nights this season, with a few of those 3-for-13 clunkers thrown in. I doubt Robinson gets into the 15-20 ppg range, simply because of his inconsistency. While I think Stanley will be more consistent this season, for every 33-point outburst he's bound for this winter, there's likely to be an 8-point clunker to balance it out.

Gavin Edwards is offensively skilled, but I wonder how much playing time he gets as the season progresses and Ater Majok joins the lineup and Alex Oriakhi (presumably) gets better. If Edwards can be a fourth double-figure scorer for UConn, that's big. Then again, maybe Majok is that guy once the Big East season starts.

Rebounding will be an issue, too. As big and strong as Oriakhi is, he won't be able to duplicate Jeff Adrien's nightly double-double potential. I almost see a "rebounding-by-committee" approach for UConn, if that makes any sense. Guys like Oriakhi, Majok, Edwards, Robinson, even Dyson can all attack the boards. I don't see Charles Okwandu as being a big factor this season, though I think the coaching staff is holding out hope. Jonathan Mandeldove? Nope.

Jamal Coombs-McDaniel is another wild card. Haven't seen him play much yet, but the reports have been pretty positive. If he can come in and be a strong all-around contributor -- scoring, rebounding, distributing, playing solid 'D' -- that will be huge for the Huskies.

Anyway, there you have it. One man's opinion, anyway. Back to baseball Sunday. Play ball!!!

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Anonymous Anonymous said...


Quick question regarding scholarships, when we sign these guys out of high school are most of them on guaranteed 4 year paid in full scholarships or are they done on a year-by-year basis? I am particularly wondering about Mandeldove. He has been a huge bust since he started in 06. Is Calhoun locked into keeping him on the team?

Also you are picks out of the NL & Al

October 12, 2009 at 9:25 AM 
Blogger David Borges said...

Scholarships are a year-to-year thing, though Mandeldove will continue to be on scholarship this season. Maybe they can find a way for him to somehow contribute in a game or two this season.

My original picks were Angels and Cardinals. Now, I'll go with Angels-Dodgers -- though it's hard to pick against the Yankees right now.

October 12, 2009 at 9:31 AM 
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